(Randall S Mar photo)
|
In this column we will look at strike rates in an interesting way.
Let’s assume for instance that you get 30 pieces of set piece possession where it is your ball. We will now assume that you will clear the zone on 10 of them, so you have 20 left. We will take the math from here.
In your 20 possessions (scrum and LO), assume that you are able to generate good ball 70% of the time. The next thing you must do is execute well in the first contact to get quick phase ball or a line break. Let’s assume that you are able to execute well and get quick ball 70% of the time in first contact.
If you do the math, your good ball rate of 70% times your execution rate of 70% means that you are left with 49% quality usage of your first phase possession that you intend to attack from and that only got you through 1 phase of play. (.7 x.7 = .49)
If you execute on the next phase at 70% then you are looking at 34.5% of getting good ball into the third phase. (.7x.7x.7) We will stop there since most tries are scored by 3rd phase or so off set play. What does that tell you? It tells me that it is critical to get the set piece right.
Not straight throws, wheeled scrums, missed LO assignments must be eliminated. Set piece defense is also quite strong, so getting good solid gain line possession with quick ball from first contact executed at a rate of 70% is generally reserved for the best of sides. This rate could be at 50% or less in many games.
Let’s now look at the same scenario when you have a good ball rate of 90% from set play and 70% in first contact. That changes your overall strike rate through first contact to 63% (up from 49%) and through the next phase it has you at about a 44% strike rate.
This tells me that the key to the game could most likely be, get your set right and get good ball at a high rate from the set piece, then have very organized support into first contact so that you increase the probability of getting good quick ball from the first contact area. Then have organized support into the next phase so that you can hit the line hard and dominate the contact area in that phase.
The more organized you are, the more that players know where they are going, and can predict what is likely to be open and how you are likely to strike, the better the chances of you having success and having a better strike rate.
If your team is good enough to go 90% in all cases then you will have good quick usable ball in 3rd phase close to 75% of the time.(.9x.7x.7) If you are only getting 60% from primary ball and you convert that 90% of the time, you are striking at less than 50%.(.6x.9x.9)
The key to being a good team is treating the ball like gold, getting good ball in first phase (disrupting opposition first phase) and then dominating the contact area with hard strike running and quick ball in the subsequent 2 phases, at that point, you are likely off to something big.
Get the set piece right, it can’t be neglected. Have your players know exactly what their roles are in support of first contact and where they will be aligned for second contact, and keep it going from there. The better you are at getting fit and getting yourself into position, the better you will do.
WORK, GET SET, REST
Too often players work, rest, and get set and they are out of position to make a play when the opportunity arises. Nigel Melville is a huge proponent of work, get set, rest; from there you will be in position to run the killer line when the opportunity arises.
If your strike rate isn’t what you would like it to be, do the math and get it right and points will come.
